07 December, 2010

United Top Group C; Headed to the Knockouts

Well our perfect run is done.  United hadn't conceded a goal in the Champions League this year and if we had not done so tonight, it would have been the first time a team had made it through the group stages without giving up a goal.
But...we drew with Valencia at home 1-1, so we didn't make the record.  However, we did advance to the knockout rounds as the top of Group C.  Anderson scored our goal (only his second goal with United).  Without that goal we would have been second in the group on goal differential.

The first knockout rounds are special, in that they have a special draw.  The teams who top their groups will not play other group toppers, but will instead play the second-place teams.  But they can't play teams that come from their own country, and can't play the team that took second to them in their own group (so United could not draw Valencia).
All of the groups (A-H) are already sewn up except for Group E and Group H.
In Group E, Bayern Munich (last year's runner-up) has in all probability wrapped up the top spot, but Roma could still pip them to the finish line if they won 9-0, while Bayern lost.  I don't think that's going to happen, but Roma is still in danger of losing out the second spot to Basel.  Basel has 6 points with a 0 goal differential.  Roma has 9 points but has a -1 differential.  If Roma win or draw with Cluj tomorrow then they will move through.  But if they lose and Basel beats Bayern and scores a couple of goals, then Basel would take the second spot.
Group H is wide open for the top two spots.  Shakhtar Donetsk is atop the group with 12 points and a GD of 4.  But Arsenal is right behind them with 9 points and a GD of 9.  Braga also has 9 points but has a GD of -4.  Shakhtar will play Braga (who beat Arsenal in the last match) tomorrow.  If Shakhtar win or draw then they will top the group and help Arsenal secure the second spot.  But if they lose to Braga and Arsenal lose to Partizan Belgrade, then Shakhtar would top the group with Braga taking the second spot.  Braga's biggest hurdle is their -4 GD.
But the top spot between Shakhtar and Arsenal is very heated because although Arsenal is second in the group on points, they have a 5-goal superior GD.
If Arsenal takes second in the group, United could not draw them in the second round.

So who could United draw?
Inter, Lyon, Copenhagen, Marseilles, AC Milan, Shakhtar (if they lose and Arsenal win) and Roma or Basel, depending upon the outcome of Group E.

If Arsenal end up topping their group, then all four Premier League teams will be first in their groups.

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